Don't get me wrong, I think these are great tools for aggregating a weighted average of people's beliefs. This is a valuable tool. Most of the time they will provide strong signal, clearly indicating the information they are designed to indicate, that is, a conviction-weighted average
There's a lot of excitement about prediction markets, a lot of weird boosterism in which folks are calling these "truth-telling machines." To begin, I have a small rant on the idea of a truth-telling machine The idea of a "truth telling machine" has long
By now, it's well-discussed that anyone using an older Bitcoin transaction type which exposes their public keys is the most vulnerable to a quantum attack on Bitcoin, if that ever materializes: If your public key is sitting in the open for years, the first Q-swiper can take months
We are now 17 years into the Bitcoin experiment; The future of 2009 is now, not just 100 years from now. This article is not going to focus on 2140 security budget concerns, rather what could happen in the next 17 years. We will leave the chart showing how exponential
The publisher has asked me to write a version 2 to my textbook "Bitcoin: A Game-Theoretic Analysis" The table of contents is here Please let me know what's important to cover! Comment below would be great, or email me at my university address or protonmail (micahw
If you've been around Bitcoin long enough, you recall that Bitcoin's breakout moment was The Silk Road. Anonymous digital cash with which one can by drugs. That was back when Bitcoin was well under $100. There was no Microstrategy, BlackRock ETF, Chainalysis or Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
In March 2022, The What Bitcoin Did Podcast invited me down to Austin TX to record an episode. They knew just a little bit about me: they knew I was a mathematician and that I was a skeptic. When I arrived at the Airbnb in Austin to record the interview
You probably heard that Tesla shareholders approved a $1 Trillion pay package. That's not entirely correct, in fact the way that this has been reported is quite misleading; what they approved is a series of stock performance and productivity stairsteps designed to meme Tesla into the stratosphere. The
Suppose we want to keep CP out of the blockchain, and believe we can do that by capping OP_RETURN payload at 1000 bytes. (Yes, there's certainly Byzantine and tortuous methods you can invent that would allow you to, in theory, transfer information into the blockchain that could
According to my math, the difficulty adjustment that happened Sept 18, 2025 put the required number of hashes to expected to find one block to be 6.113568244e+23. Divide this by 600 (seconds per ten minutes) and we get a hashrate of 1.018928e+21 per second, that is
The latest internal controversy with Bitcoin surrounds the upcoming release of Bitcoin Core, v30, which will by default, relay transactions containing large amounts of data as OP_RETURN. For the non-experts: There's an option to put small amounts of data inside a Bitcoin transaction, using something called OP_
Is it reasonable to revisit the relationship with athletics with more of a hardball, Art-of-the-Deal type approach? We all understand the basic surface level explanations as to why they "don't owe us anything" (athletics is self-funding, donors gave to expressly to athletics, we should be thankful